The Consequences of Syria by Lee Smith

Author:Lee Smith [Smith, Lee]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: International Relations, Political Science, Political Process, General
ISBN: 9780817917753
Google: peu_oAEACAAJ
Goodreads: 22309507
Publisher: Hoover Institution Press
Published: 2014-01-15T07:40:45+00:00

IV: THE JIHADIST ALIBI

From the White House’s perspective, failed states are breeding grounds for terrorism—or more specifically, terrorism that can’t be deterred. If Sunni terrorism is most often an index of the weakness of Sunni-majority states and their inability to control their jihadist hordes, Iranian-backed terrorism is a token of the strength and coherence of the regime in Tehran. From this point of view, if you can make a deal with the Iranians, you can take Hezbollah off the board; there’s no similar command and control for Al Qaeda.

However, the fact that the main Al Qaeda affiliates operating in Syria—Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria—are engaged not only in a bloody war against the regime and Assad’s allied forces, but also against other rebel units and sometimes even themselves, suggests both operational and strategic disarray. The notion that Al Qaeda, rather than Iran, a coherent nation-state building a nuclear bomb, constitutes the greatest threat to American citizens at home is comprehensible only in the context of the administration’s larger theoretical framework. For Obama, Iran isn’t the problem; rather, Iran is the key to the solution. Bringing Tehran into a regional security architecture alongside America’s traditional Arab allies in the Persian Gulf would create a new balance of power, where there would still be competition, and perhaps some conflict, but not at the same levels, since it would neutralize them and their proxies, Al Qaeda for the Sunnis, and for Iran, Hezbollah.

As one administration official told the New York Times in October 2013, White House chief of staff Denis McDonough argued against backing the Syrian rebels to topple Assad for just this reason: a prolonged conflict between Al Qaeda and Hezbollah was good for American interests. From this perspective, the best outcome was to let the two sides bleed each other indefinitely while the US stayed on the sidelines. This reading was apparently oblivious to the fact that the Middle East is more than Al Qaeda and Hezbollah. After all, the civil war threatens to destabilize American allies on Syria’s borders, while the sectarian conflict spreads from Baghdad to Beirut.

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